A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
